Are people surprised that the TTC’s Line 3 Scarborough rapid transit line is close to the end of its operating life? Perhaps not, but possibly many will be surprised that, despite a decade of promises to the contrary, Scarborough commuters may end up on buses, instead of subway trains, for several years before the new subway opens.

As early as 2005, Transit Toronto’s webmaster, James Bow warned readers in an editorial that the “RT” had reached the end of its lifespan. He urged the TTC consider extending the Bloor - Danforth subway (today’s Line 2) to replace the aging Scarborough service. Just a month later, the Toronto Transit Commission mulled its options for replacing the line.

The main problem with replacing the line has always been how to do so without banishing Scarborough commuters onto buses for as many as four or more years during construction of a replacement service. That issue has pushed plans for most alternative transit projects eastward to alignments away from the RT right of way.

And now, after 15 years of fiddling while Scarborough yearns (for rapid transit), it’s too late.

According to the Toronto Star and other media outlets, Thursday, December 10, Toronto Mayor John Tory admitted to reporters that the line would fail years before the Government of Ontario can complete a project to extend Line 2 to replace the RT. A TTC staff report to the Commission — its board of directors — in February would outline the future of the Line 3 infrastructure and what the transit agency will do to serve passengers in the interim years.

The Star’s City Hall bureau chief, Jennifer Pagliaro details the situation in a recent article:

“The beleaguered Scarborough RT will fail before the long-awaited Scarborough subway is built, leaving residents on the bus — possibly for years — Mayor John Tory confirmed Thursday.

“Council, meanwhile, will once again be asked to consider the alternative — a cheaper, more robust plan to build LRTs across the eastern part of the city.

“Speaking to reporters at city hall, Tory said he had been briefed on the lifespan of the SRT ahead of a delayed report to the TTC board.

“‘There are very active discussions going on now between the TTC and Metrolinx with respect to exactly how long we have to provide that alternate transit service for, because it will not be the case that we can keep the SRT going until the Scarborough subway is finished.’

“That news — after a decade of promises to Scarborough residents about improved transit — undercuts one of the central arguments for building a subway instead of the cheaper light-rail transit option preferred by some on council.”

In the Toronto Sun, reporter Bryan Passifume explains,

“Scarborough’s sole mass transit option won’t live long enough to see its replacement.

“That’s the word from Mayor John Tory, who said the Scarborough RT — the long-past-its-prime transit line and sole non-bus option for commuters in the city’s eastern reaches — won’t survive to see the opening of the subway extension designed to replace it.

“There comes a point in time where you just can’t keep something like that running anymore,” he said Thursday. “It’s like an old car — you can keep repairing it but sooner or later you run out of options.”

Initially meant to be a grade-separated streetcar line once Kennedy station opened in 1980, the provincial government strong-armed the TTC into making it a testbed for the experimental Intermediate Capacity Transit System (ICTS) — a revolutionary magnetic-induction peoplemover under development by government-owned Urban Transportation Development Corp.

“Opening in 1985, the SRT was a winter nightmare — snow could only be cleared by hand along the six-kilometre route, and cold weather often crippled its space-age linear-induction propulsion system.”

“Council barreled ahead to replace the SRT with a one-stop Bloor-Danforth subway extension to Scarborough Town Centre — a neutered version of the three-stop plan favoured by former Mayor Rob Ford.

“Council revolted and advocated instead for a seven-stop LRT line, a leftover from the Ford-scuttled Transit City plan advocated by predecessor David Miller.”

The Star adds:

“When first pushed under former mayor Rob Ford’s administration, proponents of the subway said it was, in part, a superior option because the SRT could continue running while the subway was built and not cause any disruptions in regular service…

In an article in The Globe and Mail, urban affairs reporter Oliver Moore writes:

“The Scarborough extension has for years been the most hotly contested transit project in the city. Originally planned as a seven-stop light rail line, it became a political football and a rallying cry for those in Scarborough who argued that they deserved a subway instead.”

“City council eventually decided to replace the LRT plan with a three-stop subway, but the project continued to mutate. It became a one-stop extension as a way of saving money, with the freed-up funds to go to another transit project in Scarborough. Costs for both projects continued to mount and, even since the province took over the subway extension, Toronto does not have enough money to fund that second project.”

The Star’s Pagliaro spoke with Councillor Josh Matlow, a long-time supporter of a light rail transit option to replace the Scarborough RT:

“‘The seven-stop Scarborough LRT that I advocated for, along with being approved, funded and able to serve more neighbourhoods, would’ve already been built and operating by now,’ said… Matlow, who has long questioned the lack of evidence for a subway.

“He plans to move a motion at council next week asking councillors to request the province stop work on the three-stop subway and instead build the originally planned seven-stop LRT, while using any cost savings to build a second LRT along Eglinton Avenue East.

“‘Today, the worst outcome has happened and Scarborough residents are being left on a very long bus ride. When we cautioned this would happen, subway proponents falsely promised it wouldn’t. Scarborough deserves so much better than this.’

The Globe also quotes the councillor:

“…Matlow, long an advocate of the original LRT plan, said Thursday that the way the subway had been pushed reminded him of the ‘manipulative populist politics’ of U.S. President Donald Trump.

“‘Because too many politicians put their own political interests before facts and best interests of Scarborough residents, the people who trusted in their leaders have been left with nothing, and it’s really shameful.’”

“A three-stop subway, loosely estimated to cost $3.56 billion with zero design work done was first confirmed by council under Ford in October 2013 — more than seven years ago.”

According to the Sun:

“Matlow… called the mayor’s comments ‘incredibly disappointing.’

“‘This really is the worst possible outcome that Scarborough residents are going to be left on the bus,’ he told the Sun.”

A report by CBC News Toronto reviews the impact of that outcome on Scarborough commuters:

Jamaal Myers, an organizer of the advocacy group Scarborough Transit Action, said he is not surprised that residents in that part of the city will be neglected again when it comes to transit.

“‘For years, Scarborough Transit Action has been predicting that it was very unlikely that a subway would be built in time for the SRT to retire safely,’ Myers said.

“‘For years, we’ve been told by politicians, like John Tory, that this was not the case. It would not happen. But now it’s happening. This was entirely predictable, but nonetheless, it’s still very disappointing and disheartening to hear,’ he added.

Myers said people who are still commuting are essential workers and they will be forced to waste more time on the bus because politicians decided they were ‘transit planners.’ He said the news is frustrating and the situation is unacceptable for Scarborough.

“‘And now it looks like, at a minimum, Scarborough transit users will be on buses for 10 years and there is no rapid transit east of McCowan for all of Scarborough,’ Myers said.

“It’s not clear when the Scarborough subway will be built and there is no plan for a dedicated right of way for buses and how the buses will affect traffic use, he said. There is also no plan on where to store the buses.

“‘I really hope that the mayor really takes responsibility and ownership of this. He has to get real with Scarborough transit users,’ Myers said.

“Myers said Metrolinx and TTC need to give Scarborough transit users a clear estimate of how long they will be on buses.

“‘No playing around with the numbers. Just give to us straight.’”

The Star article explains further:

“Campaigning for the mayoral seat in 2014, Tory himself promised to build the three-stop version of the subway until ballooning cost estimates forced him to pivot to a revised one-stop option.

“At the time, he and then-chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat promised that the cost savings from that switch would allow the city to also build an LRT along Eglinton Avenue East to the University of Toronto Scarborough campus.

“However, emails uncovered by the Star showed that the cost had never been verified as claimed, and city staff believed it could actually be much higher but didn’t tell council that ahead of a crucial vote. Later, the cost of that subway option grew to overtake the available funds, pricing out any additional LRT.

“When Doug Ford, the late mayor’s brother, became premier of Ontario, he resurrected the three-stop option approved years earlier, scrapping ongoing plans for the one-stop version. Construction of that estimated $5.5-billion subway — which has not been fully funded — has not yet started. The province estimates it could be completed in 2029 or 2030.

“In TTC reports to the board to be discussed next week, staff note that the SRT is not currently fully functional, with only four of five cars in service and a plan to return to full service in October had been delayed. Though a future service plan assumes all five cars will be operational through 2025, the report notes that the SRT’s lifespan is ‘currently under review.’

“In 2012, the city, TTC and Metrolinx signed an agreement to build a seven-stop LRT in the SRT corridor, replacing that service which at that time was said to be nearing the end of its life. Back then, Metrolinx was contractually obligated to pay the cost of the bus replacement service…

“In a 2016 business case on the subway, city staff said ‘replacing the existing SRT vehicles with buses is not a desirable option.’

“It outlined that bus replacement for the SRT during construction would require 63 additional buses and other infrastructure requirements such as a new bus facility to accommodate the additional fleet and expansion of the bus terminals at Scarborough Centre and Kennedy stations at a cost estimated at that time to be $171 million.

“‘The SRT shutdown would also result in slower and less reliable transit service,’ the business case said, ‘which would be likely to deter users from using public transit.’”

The CBC reports:

“Mary Davidson, spokesperson for the TTC, said on Thursday that a report outlining options for the Scarborough subway extension project is being prepared and a report with recommendations is expected to go to the TTC board at its meeting in February.”